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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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RWDM and K. Lierse S.K. share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

RWDM and K. Lierse S.K. finished level at 1-1 at Edmond Machtens Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting RWDM 1.39 xG and K. Lierse S.K. 1.87 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. K. Lierse S.K. landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RWDM attack 1.02 / defence 1.31 against K. Lierse S.K. attack 1.02 / defence 0.98, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it RWDM 29% | Draw 22% | K. Lierse S.K. 49%, with K. Lierse S.K. to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RWDM 53%, K. Lierse S.K. 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

RWDM's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — RWDM 1.60 PPG, K. Lierse S.K. 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights