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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Francs Borains cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over RWDM.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Francs Borains beat RWDM 1-3 at Edmond Machtens Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting RWDM 1.94 xG and Francs Borains 1.12 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. RWDM fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Francs Borains outscored their 1.12 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RWDM attack 1.11 / defence 0.93 against Francs Borains attack 0.89 / defence 1.36, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it RWDM 55% | Draw 25% | Francs Borains 20%, with RWDM to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Francs Borains win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RWDM 50%, Francs Borains 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

RWDM's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Francs Borains's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, RWDM arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.07. Form was overturned, with Francs Borains winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. RWDM (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Francs Borains (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights