RWDM 2-2 Deinze – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Deinze at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this RWDM vs Deinze fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Edmond Machtens-Stadion plays host to RWDM versus Deinze in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Sunday 28 November 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
RWDM's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for RWDM, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RWDM's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 3L across 6 games at Edmond Machtens-Stadion this term (0.83 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Deinze (all games): 2W 6D 2L across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Deinze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Challenger Pro League this season, Deinze have posted 1W 4D 1L from 6 away outings — 1.17 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — RWDM have seen both teams score in 83% of their games, Deinze in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: RWDM 1W, Deinze 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2021, ended 2–1 with RWDM winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
RWDM half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Deinze half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 42% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — RWDM 75% and Deinze 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RWDM 67% | Deinze 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RWDM 1.47 xG and Deinze 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RWDM attack 1.032 / defence 1.249 | Deinze attack 0.760 / defence 1.292. League average goals — home 1.105 / away 1.725. Deinze bring a strong defensive rating of 1.292 — this is suppressing RWDM's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 RWDM games / 12 Deinze games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RWDM 31% | Draw 30% | Deinze 38%. Fair-value odds: RWDM 3.23 | Draw 3.33 | Deinze 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 1.64) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Deinze at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Deinze if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.11 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: RWDM 83% | Deinze 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RWDM vs Deinze | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Edmond Machtens-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RWDM 31% | Draw 30% | Deinze 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 65% | xG RWDM 1.47 / Deinze 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: RWDM attack 1.032 / def 1.249 | Deinze attack 0.760 / def 1.292 | league avg home 1.105 / away 1.725 • Poisson stance: Deinze (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
RWDM xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Deinze xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RWDM vs Deinze kick off?
RWDM vs Deinze kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at Edmond Machtens-Stadion.
What was the final score in RWDM vs Deinze?
RWDM 2 - 2 Deinze.
Where is RWDM vs Deinze being played?
The match is being played at Edmond Machtens-Stadion.
What competition is RWDM vs Deinze part of?
RWDM vs Deinze is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win RWDM vs Deinze?
Our statistical model gives RWDM a 31% chance of winning, Deinze a 38% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Deinze the favourite.
Will both teams score in RWDM vs Deinze?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both RWDM and Deinze will score (BTTS).
Will RWDM vs Deinze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between RWDM and Deinze?
Record (1 meetings): RWDM 1W | Draws 0 | Deinze 0W.
What form are RWDM and Deinze in?
RWDM (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Deinze (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates RWDM's attack at 1.03x the league average against Deinze's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Deinze's attack (0.76x) against RWDM's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.64.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Deinze Win
31%
3.19
30%
3.32
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
RWDM xG
Total xG
3.11
1.64
Deinze xG
3.19
31%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.89
Clean Sheet
19%
5.14
23%
4.37
Win to Nil
6%
16.40
9%
11.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 7.3 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.7 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.9 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RWDM vs Deinze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are RWDM and Deinze expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for RWDM and 1.64 for Deinze, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for RWDM vs Deinze?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
RWDM's recent record stands at 4W 4D 4L from 12 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for RWDM is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Deinze, meanwhile, have gone 3W 7D 2L across 12 games — 1.33 PPG, with D-D-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Deinze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for RWDM against 1.33 for Deinze. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, RWDM have managed 1W 2D 3L from 6 games — 0.83 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.33 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Deinze's away record stands at 1W 4D 1L across 6 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
RWDM are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Deinze are on 1.58 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RWDM have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Deinze in 75%.
Last 12 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RWDM
Blended
Deinze
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RWDM and Deinze in coming into this match?
RWDM have gone 4W 4D 4L in their last 12 games (1.33 PPG), while Deinze have gone 3W 7D 2L in their last 12 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RWDM at home or Deinze away?
Deinze's away record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RWDM at home: 0.83 PPG; Deinze away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 October 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
RWDM go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Deinze won 3-0 on 3 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, RWDM have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Deinze — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
5
RWDM
1
Draws
1
Deinze
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RWDM and Deinze?
From 7 meetings on record, RWDM have won 5, Deinze have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did RWDM and Deinze last play each other?
They last met on 26 October 2024, when RWDM 3-2 Deinze.
Who has won more matches between RWDM and Deinze?
RWDM have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
RWDM are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Deinze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 83% for RWDM, 67% for Deinze — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for RWDM and 50% for Deinze. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RWDM home games / Deinze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RWDM play Deinze?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of RWDM's games and 67% of Deinze's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is RWDM vs Deinze usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of RWDM's matches and 50% of Deinze's.
Do RWDM and Deinze tend to score early?
RWDM have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Deinze in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
RWDM and Deinze share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Edmond Machtens-Stadion, Regular Season - 13, as RWDM and Deinze drew 2-2 in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RWDM 1.47 xG and Deinze 1.64 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RWDM attack 1.03 / defence 1.25 against Deinze attack 0.76 / defence 1.29, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RWDM 31% | Draw 30% | Deinze 38%, with Deinze to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RWDM 67%, Deinze 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RWDM's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Deinze's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RWDM 1.33 PPG, Deinze 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.