RWDM 0-1 Beerschot VA – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates RWDM at 35% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this RWDM vs Beerschot VA encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Challenger Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Beerschot VA travel to Edmond Machtens Stadium to take on RWDM. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 November 2025, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, RWDM have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D W L D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for RWDM, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, RWDM have posted 5W 2D 3L at Edmond Machtens Stadium — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Beerschot VA — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beerschot VA, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beerschot VA's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Challenger Pro League this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Beerschot VA's 2.10 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of RWDM's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: RWDM have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 4 past contests while Beerschot VA have managed just 0 wins.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2023, ended 4–0 with RWDM winning.
The historical record gives RWDM a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
RWDM in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Beerschot VA in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RWDM 50% versus Beerschot VA 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RWDM 50% | Beerschot VA 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RWDM 1.36 xG and Beerschot VA 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RWDM attack 1.231 / defence 0.926 | Beerschot VA attack 0.993 / defence 0.862. League average goals — home 1.283 / away 1.406. Data: 40 RWDM games / 11 Beerschot VA games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RWDM 35% | Draw 32% | Beerschot VA 32%. Fair-value odds: RWDM 2.86 | Draw 3.12 | Beerschot VA 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
RWDM dominate the H2H record, yet Beerschot VA are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, RWDM are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Beerschot VA (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RWDM offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: RWDM 50% | Beerschot VA 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RWDM vs Beerschot VA | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Edmond Machtens Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Nov 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RWDM 35% | Draw 32% | Beerschot VA 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 57% | xG RWDM 1.36 / Beerschot VA 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: RWDM attack 1.231 / def 0.926 | Beerschot VA attack 0.993 / def 0.862 | league avg home 1.283 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: RWDM (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
RWDM xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Beerschot VA xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RWDM vs Beerschot VA kick off?
RWDM vs Beerschot VA kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 9 November 2025 at Edmond Machtens Stadium.
What was the final score in RWDM vs Beerschot VA?
RWDM 0 - 1 Beerschot VA.
Where is RWDM vs Beerschot VA being played?
The match is being played at Edmond Machtens Stadium.
What competition is RWDM vs Beerschot VA part of?
RWDM vs Beerschot VA is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win RWDM vs Beerschot VA?
Our statistical model gives RWDM a 35% chance of winning, Beerschot VA a 32% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making RWDM the favourite.
Will both teams score in RWDM vs Beerschot VA?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both RWDM and Beerschot VA will score (BTTS).
Will RWDM vs Beerschot VA have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between RWDM and Beerschot VA?
Record (4 meetings): RWDM 3W | Draws 1 | Beerschot VA 0W.
What form are RWDM and Beerschot VA in?
RWDM (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. Beerschot VA (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates RWDM's attack at 1.23x the league average against Beerschot VA's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Beerschot VA's attack versus RWDM's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RWDM Win
35%
2.82
32%
3.10
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
RWDM xG
Total xG
2.65
1.29
Beerschot VA xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
10%
10.28
8%
12.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.4 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RWDM vs Beerschot VA?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are RWDM and Beerschot VA expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for RWDM and 1.29 for Beerschot VA, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for RWDM vs Beerschot VA?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
RWDM's recent record stands at 23W 9D 10L from 42 games, a 1.86 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for RWDM is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beerschot VA, meanwhile, have gone 12W 11D 19L across 42 games — 1.12 PPG, with W-W-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Beerschot VA is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours RWDM by 0.74 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Beerschot VA heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, RWDM have managed 13W 3D 4L from 20 games — 2.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Beerschot VA's away record stands at 4W 3D 13L across 20 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RWDM come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
RWDM are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Beerschot VA are on 1.17 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Defensively: RWDM have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RWDM
Blended
Beerschot VA
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RWDM and Beerschot VA in coming into this match?
RWDM have gone 23W 9D 10L in their last 42 games (1.86 PPG), while Beerschot VA have gone 12W 11D 19L in their last 42 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RWDM at home or Beerschot VA away?
RWDM's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RWDM at home: 2.10 PPG; Beerschot VA away: 0.75 PPG.
Have RWDM or Beerschot VA been keeping clean sheets recently?
RWDM have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Beerschot VA in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Apr 2023, when RWDM won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
RWDM's record when hosting Beerschot VA specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
RWDM
2
Draws
1
Beerschot VA
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RWDM and Beerschot VA?
From 6 meetings on record, RWDM have won 3, Beerschot VA have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did RWDM and Beerschot VA last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Beerschot VA 1-1 RWDM.
Who has won more matches between RWDM and Beerschot VA?
RWDM have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
RWDM are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Beerschot VA are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RWDM 45%, Beerschot VA 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (RWDM) and 60% (Beerschot VA). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: RWDM keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Beerschot VA in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RWDM home games / Beerschot VA away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RWDM play Beerschot VA?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of RWDM's recent matches and 50% of Beerschot VA's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is RWDM vs Beerschot VA usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of RWDM's matches and 60% of Beerschot VA's.
Do RWDM and Beerschot VA tend to score early?
RWDM have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Beerschot VA in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Beerschot VA defy the odds to beat RWDM 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beerschot VA beat RWDM 0-1 at Edmond Machtens Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RWDM 1.36 xG and Beerschot VA 1.29 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. RWDM fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RWDM attack 1.23 / defence 0.93 against Beerschot VA attack 0.99 / defence 0.86, drawn from 40/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RWDM 35% | Draw 32% | Beerschot VA 32%, with RWDM to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Beerschot VA win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RWDM 50%, Beerschot VA 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RWDM's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Beerschot VA's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, RWDM arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.12. Form was overturned, with Beerschot VA winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. RWDM (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.