🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant SK Beveren run riot with a 0-4 hammering of RSC Anderlecht II.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SK Beveren beat RSC Anderlecht II 0-4 at Burg Van De Wielestadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting RSC Anderlecht II 1.36 xG and SK Beveren 1.62 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. RSC Anderlecht II fell 1.4 short of their projected output. SK Beveren outscored their 1.62 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RSC Anderlecht II attack 1.12 / defence 1.25 against SK Beveren attack 1.05 / defence 0.88, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it RSC Anderlecht II 32% | Draw 24% | SK Beveren 44%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RSC Anderlecht II 60%, SK Beveren 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

RSC Anderlecht II's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.

SK Beveren's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.98. That form edge translated into the three points. RSC Anderlecht II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SK Beveren (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights