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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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RSC Anderlecht II and Seraing United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Burg Van De Wielestadion, Regular Season - 26, as RSC Anderlecht II and Seraing United drew 1-1 in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting RSC Anderlecht II 2.43 xG and Seraing United 1.66 xG, a combined 4.09. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. RSC Anderlecht II fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RSC Anderlecht II attack 1.36 / defence 1.19 against Seraing United attack 1.03 / defence 1.30, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it RSC Anderlecht II 55% | Draw 19% | Seraing United 26%, with RSC Anderlecht II to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RSC Anderlecht II 61%, Seraing United 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

RSC Anderlecht II's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Seraing United's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — RSC Anderlecht II 1.04 PPG, Seraing United 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights