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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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RSC Anderlecht II and Lommel United share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

RSC Anderlecht II and Lommel United finished level at 2-2 at Lotto Park, Regular Season - 10, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting RSC Anderlecht II 1.09 xG and Lommel United 1.93 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. RSC Anderlecht II beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RSC Anderlecht II attack 1.00 / defence 1.25 against Lommel United attack 1.14 / defence 0.92, drawn from 37/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it RSC Anderlecht II 20% | Draw 23% | Lommel United 56%, with Lommel United to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RSC Anderlecht II 62%, Lommel United 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

RSC Anderlecht II's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Lommel United's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Lommel United arrived the stronger side — 1.27 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights