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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant RSC Anderlecht II run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Lommel United.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

RSC Anderlecht II beat Lommel United 5-0 at Burg Van De Wielestadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting RSC Anderlecht II 2.18 xG and Lommel United 1.53 xG, a combined 3.71. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. RSC Anderlecht II beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lommel United landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RSC Anderlecht II attack 1.23 / defence 1.08 against Lommel United attack 1.01 / defence 1.32, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it RSC Anderlecht II 52% | Draw 21% | Lommel United 27%, with RSC Anderlecht II to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RSC Anderlecht II 58%, Lommel United 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

RSC Anderlecht II's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

Lommel United's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — RSC Anderlecht II 1.04 PPG, Lommel United 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RSC Anderlecht II win broke the near-deadlock. RSC Anderlecht II (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line. Lommel United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.72 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights