🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Kortrijk cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over RSC Anderlecht II.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kortrijk beat RSC Anderlecht II 1-3 at Lotto Park, Regular Season - 1, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting RSC Anderlecht II 1.60 xG and Kortrijk 1.39 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Kortrijk outscored their 1.39 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RSC Anderlecht II attack 1.04 / defence 1.10 against Kortrijk attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 29/0 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it RSC Anderlecht II 43% | Draw 24% | Kortrijk 33%, with RSC Anderlecht II to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Kortrijk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RSC Anderlecht II 69%, Kortrijk 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

RSC Anderlecht II's trading profile (29 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Kortrijk's trading profile (29 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — RSC Anderlecht II 0.79 PPG, Kortrijk 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kortrijk win broke the near-deadlock. RSC Anderlecht II (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kortrijk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights