RSC Anderlecht II 0-1 Francs Borains – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RSC Anderlecht II at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this RSC Anderlecht II vs Francs Borains fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Challenger Pro League clash, Regular Season - 15 as RSC Anderlecht II welcome Francs Borains to Stade Roi Baudouin. Kick-off is set for Saturday 14 December 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
RSC Anderlecht II — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for RSC Anderlecht II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RSC Anderlecht II's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Stade Roi Baudouin this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Francs Borains stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Francs Borains, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Challenger Pro League this season, Francs Borains have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, RSC Anderlecht II have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. RSC Anderlecht II register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Francs Borains in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for RSC Anderlecht II, 1 for Francs Borains and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Mar 2024, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
RSC Anderlecht II in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Francs Borains in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — RSC Anderlecht II 68% and Francs Borains 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RSC Anderlecht II 59% | Francs Borains 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RSC Anderlecht II 1.90 xG and Francs Borains 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RSC Anderlecht II attack 1.037 / defence 1.048 | Francs Borains attack 1.026 / defence 1.201. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.414. Francs Borains bring a strong defensive rating of 1.201 — this is suppressing RSC Anderlecht II's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 RSC Anderlecht II games / 44 Francs Borains games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RSC Anderlecht II 47% | Draw 22% | Francs Borains 31%. Fair-value odds: RSC Anderlecht II 2.13 | Draw 4.55 | Francs Borains 3.23. RSC Anderlecht II hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.90 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is RSC Anderlecht II at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RSC Anderlecht II offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.42 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: RSC Anderlecht II 80% | Francs Borains 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RSC Anderlecht II vs Francs Borains | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stade Roi Baudouin • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Dec 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RSC Anderlecht II 47% | Draw 22% | Francs Borains 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG RSC Anderlecht II 1.90 / Francs Borains 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: RSC Anderlecht II attack 1.037 / def 1.048 | Francs Borains attack 1.026 / def 1.201 | league avg home 1.527 / away 1.414 • Poisson stance: RSC Anderlecht II (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
RSC Anderlecht II xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Francs Borains xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RSC Anderlecht II vs Francs Borains kick off?
RSC Anderlecht II vs Francs Borains kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 14 December 2024 at Stade Roi Baudouin.
What was the final score in RSC Anderlecht II vs Francs Borains?
RSC Anderlecht II 0 - 1 Francs Borains.
Where is RSC Anderlecht II vs Francs Borains being played?
The match is being played at Stade Roi Baudouin.
What competition is RSC Anderlecht II vs Francs Borains part of?
RSC Anderlecht II vs Francs Borains is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win RSC Anderlecht II vs Francs Borains?
Our statistical model gives RSC Anderlecht II a 47% chance of winning, Francs Borains a 31% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making RSC Anderlecht II the favourite.
Will both teams score in RSC Anderlecht II vs Francs Borains?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both RSC Anderlecht II and Francs Borains will score (BTTS).
Will RSC Anderlecht II vs Francs Borains have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between RSC Anderlecht II and Francs Borains?
Record (2 meetings): RSC Anderlecht II 0W | Draws 1 | Francs Borains 1W.
What form are RSC Anderlecht II and Francs Borains in?
RSC Anderlecht II (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Francs Borains (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates RSC Anderlecht II's attack at 1.04x the league average against Francs Borains's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.90 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Francs Borains's attack versus RSC Anderlecht II's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
RSC Anderlecht II Win
47%
2.14
22%
4.51
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
RSC Anderlecht II xG
Total xG
3.42
1.52
Francs Borains xG
2.14
47%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.50
34%
BTTS No
2.98
Clean Sheet
22%
4.57
15%
6.69
Win to Nil
10%
9.78
5%
21.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 9.4 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 9.0 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.7 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RSC Anderlecht II vs Francs Borains?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are RSC Anderlecht II and Francs Borains expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for RSC Anderlecht II and 1.52 for Francs Borains, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for RSC Anderlecht II vs Francs Borains?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 44 outings, RSC Anderlecht II have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 11W 14D 19L record — D-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for RSC Anderlecht II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Francs Borains's form line: 13W 6D 25L from 44 games, 1.02 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W. The sample for Francs Borains is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: RSC Anderlecht II on 1.07 PPG, Francs Borains on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, RSC Anderlecht II have posted 0.90 PPG from 21 outings (4W 7D 10L).
On the road, Francs Borains have gone 6W 3D 12L from 21 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
RSC Anderlecht II are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Francs Borains are on 1.23 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RSC Anderlecht II have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RSC Anderlecht II
Blended
Francs Borains
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RSC Anderlecht II and Francs Borains in coming into this match?
RSC Anderlecht II have gone 11W 14D 19L in their last 44 games (1.07 PPG), while Francs Borains have gone 13W 6D 25L in their last 44 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RSC Anderlecht II at home or Francs Borains away?
Francs Borains's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RSC Anderlecht II at home: 0.90 PPG; Francs Borains away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 18 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
RSC Anderlecht II's record when hosting Francs Borains specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
RSC Anderlecht II
2
Draws
4
Francs Borains
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RSC Anderlecht II and Francs Borains?
From 7 meetings on record, RSC Anderlecht II have won 1, Francs Borains have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did RSC Anderlecht II and Francs Borains last play each other?
They last met on 18 September 2026, when Francs Borains 3-2 RSC Anderlecht II.
Who has won more matches between RSC Anderlecht II and Francs Borains?
Francs Borains have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
RSC Anderlecht II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Francs Borains are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RSC Anderlecht II 76%, Francs Borains 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for RSC Anderlecht II and 71% for Francs Borains. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Francs Borains in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RSC Anderlecht II home games / Francs Borains away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RSC Anderlecht II play Francs Borains?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of RSC Anderlecht II's games and 52% of Francs Borains's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is RSC Anderlecht II vs Francs Borains usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of RSC Anderlecht II's matches and 71% of Francs Borains's.
Do RSC Anderlecht II and Francs Borains tend to score early?
RSC Anderlecht II have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Francs Borains in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Francs Borains defy the odds to beat RSC Anderlecht II 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Francs Borains beat RSC Anderlecht II 0-1 at Stade Roi Baudouin, Regular Season - 15, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RSC Anderlecht II 1.90 xG and Francs Borains 1.52 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. RSC Anderlecht II fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RSC Anderlecht II attack 1.04 / defence 1.05 against Francs Borains attack 1.03 / defence 1.20, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RSC Anderlecht II 47% | Draw 22% | Francs Borains 31%, with RSC Anderlecht II to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Francs Borains win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RSC Anderlecht II 59%, Francs Borains 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RSC Anderlecht II's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Francs Borains's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RSC Anderlecht II 1.07 PPG, Francs Borains 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Francs Borains win broke the near-deadlock. RSC Anderlecht II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line. Francs Borains (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.