Royal Excel Mouscron 0-0 K. Lierse S.K. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Royal Excel Mouscron at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Royal Excel Mouscron vs K. Lierse S.K. encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
K. Lierse S.K. make the trip to Stade Le Canonnier to face Royal Excel Mouscron in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Sunday 23 January 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Royal Excel Mouscron (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Royal Excel Mouscron, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Royal Excel Mouscron's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 3L across 8 games at Stade Le Canonnier this term (1.38 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
K. Lierse S.K. have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: L L D D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for K. Lierse S.K., so this record blends games from this season and last.
K. Lierse S.K. away from home this season: 1W 3D 4L from 8 away games — 0.75 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Royal Excel Mouscron's favour (1.80 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Royal Excel Mouscron have seen both teams score in 62% of their games, K. Lierse S.K. in 100%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Royal Excel Mouscron lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Nov 2021, ended 2–1 with Royal Excel Mouscron winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Royal Excel Mouscron half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
K. Lierse S.K. half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Royal Excel Mouscron 62% and K. Lierse S.K. 88% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Royal Excel Mouscron 62% | K. Lierse S.K. 81%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Royal Excel Mouscron 1.61 xG and K. Lierse S.K. 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Royal Excel Mouscron attack 0.915 / defence 1.007 | K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.879 / defence 1.474. League average goals — home 1.196 / away 1.713. K. Lierse S.K. bring a strong defensive rating of 1.474 — this is suppressing Royal Excel Mouscron's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Royal Excel Mouscron games / 16 K. Lierse S.K. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Royal Excel Mouscron 37% | Draw 30% | K. Lierse S.K. 33%. Fair-value odds: Royal Excel Mouscron 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | K. Lierse S.K. 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.61 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Royal Excel Mouscron at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Royal Excel Mouscron if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Royal Excel Mouscron 62% | K. Lierse S.K. 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Royal Excel Mouscron vs K. Lierse S.K. | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stade Le Canonnier • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Jan 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Royal Excel Mouscron 37% | Draw 30% | K. Lierse S.K. 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 66% | xG Royal Excel Mouscron 1.61 / K. Lierse S.K. 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Royal Excel Mouscron attack 0.915 / def 1.007 | K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.879 / def 1.474 | league avg home 1.196 / away 1.713 • Poisson stance: Royal Excel Mouscron (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Royal Excel Mouscron xG
Expected Goals
1.52
K. Lierse S.K. xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Royal Excel Mouscron vs K. Lierse S.K. kick off?
Royal Excel Mouscron vs K. Lierse S.K. kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 23 January 2022 at Stade Le Canonnier.
What was the final score in Royal Excel Mouscron vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Royal Excel Mouscron 0 - 0 K. Lierse S.K..
Where is Royal Excel Mouscron vs K. Lierse S.K. being played?
The match is being played at Stade Le Canonnier.
What competition is Royal Excel Mouscron vs K. Lierse S.K. part of?
Royal Excel Mouscron vs K. Lierse S.K. is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Royal Excel Mouscron vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our statistical model gives Royal Excel Mouscron a 37% chance of winning, K. Lierse S.K. a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Royal Excel Mouscron the favourite.
Will both teams score in Royal Excel Mouscron vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Royal Excel Mouscron and K. Lierse S.K. will score (BTTS).
Will Royal Excel Mouscron vs K. Lierse S.K. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Royal Excel Mouscron and K. Lierse S.K.?
Record (2 meetings): Royal Excel Mouscron 1W | Draws 1 | K. Lierse S.K. 0W.
What form are Royal Excel Mouscron and K. Lierse S.K. in?
Royal Excel Mouscron (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. K. Lierse S.K. (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Royal Excel Mouscron's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against K. Lierse S.K.'s defensive record (1.47x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. Flip it around — K. Lierse S.K.'s attack (0.88x) against Royal Excel Mouscron's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Royal Excel Mouscron Win
37%
2.70
30%
3.32
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Royal Excel Mouscron xG
Total xG
3.13
1.52
K. Lierse S.K. xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.92
Clean Sheet
22%
4.56
20%
5.02
Win to Nil
8%
12.32
7%
15.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.6 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.7 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.6 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Royal Excel Mouscron vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Royal Excel Mouscron and K. Lierse S.K. expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Royal Excel Mouscron and 1.52 for K. Lierse S.K., a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Royal Excel Mouscron vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Royal Excel Mouscron come into this having played 16 games, going 5W 4D 7L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-D. The sample for Royal Excel Mouscron is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, K. Lierse S.K. sit at 1.12 PPG from 16 outings (4W 6D 6L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for K. Lierse S.K. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Royal Excel Mouscron against 1.12 for K. Lierse S.K.. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Royal Excel Mouscron's home form reads 3W 2D 3L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, K. Lierse S.K. have taken 0.75 points per game from 8 outings (1W 3D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Royal Excel Mouscron come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Royal Excel Mouscron are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; K. Lierse S.K. are on 1.81 scored and 1.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Royal Excel Mouscron have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; K. Lierse S.K. in 88%.
Last 16 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Royal Excel Mouscron
Blended
K. Lierse S.K.
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Royal Excel Mouscron and K. Lierse S.K. in coming into this match?
Royal Excel Mouscron have gone 5W 4D 7L in their last 16 games (1.19 PPG), while K. Lierse S.K. have gone 4W 6D 6L in their last 16 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Royal Excel Mouscron at home or K. Lierse S.K. away?
Royal Excel Mouscron's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Royal Excel Mouscron at home: 1.38 PPG; K. Lierse S.K. away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Royal Excel Mouscron have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against K. Lierse S.K. — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Royal Excel Mouscron
2
Draws
0
K. Lierse S.K.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Royal Excel Mouscron and K. Lierse S.K.?
From 4 meetings on record, Royal Excel Mouscron have won 2, K. Lierse S.K. have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Royal Excel Mouscron and K. Lierse S.K. last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2022, when K. Lierse S.K. 0-1 Royal Excel Mouscron.
Who has won more matches between Royal Excel Mouscron and K. Lierse S.K.?
Royal Excel Mouscron have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Royal Excel Mouscron are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
K. Lierse S.K. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 62% for Royal Excel Mouscron, 100% for K. Lierse S.K. — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Royal Excel Mouscron and 88% for K. Lierse S.K.. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 12% and 62% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Royal Excel Mouscron home games / K. Lierse S.K. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Royal Excel Mouscron play K. Lierse S.K.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Royal Excel Mouscron's games and 100% of K. Lierse S.K.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Royal Excel Mouscron vs K. Lierse S.K. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Royal Excel Mouscron's matches and 88% of K. Lierse S.K.'s.
Do Royal Excel Mouscron and K. Lierse S.K. tend to score early?
Royal Excel Mouscron have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, K. Lierse S.K. in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Royal Excel Mouscron's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Le Canonnier, Regular Season - 17, as Royal Excel Mouscron and K. Lierse S.K. drew 0-0 in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Royal Excel Mouscron 1.61 xG and K. Lierse S.K. 1.52 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Royal Excel Mouscron fell 1.6 short of their projected output. K. Lierse S.K. landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Royal Excel Mouscron attack 0.92 / defence 1.01 against K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.88 / defence 1.47, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Royal Excel Mouscron 37% | Draw 30% | K. Lierse S.K. 33%, with Royal Excel Mouscron to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Royal Excel Mouscron 62%, K. Lierse S.K. 81%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Royal Excel Mouscron's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 88% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Royal Excel Mouscron 1.19 PPG, K. Lierse S.K. 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Royal Excel Mouscron (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. K. Lierse S.K. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.