🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant RAAL La Louvière run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Seraing United.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

RAAL La Louvière beat Seraing United 4-1 at Stade Communal du Tivoli, Regular Season - 22, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting RAAL La Louvière 1.46 xG and Seraing United 1.18 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. RAAL La Louvière beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RAAL La Louvière attack 1.02 / defence 0.86 against Seraing United attack 0.98 / defence 1.09, drawn from 21/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it RAAL La Louvière 43% | Draw 27% | Seraing United 30%, with RAAL La Louvière to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RAAL La Louvière 52%, Seraing United 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

RAAL La Louvière's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Seraing United's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, RAAL La Louvière arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.90. Form held, and they took the win. RAAL La Louvière (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm. Seraing United (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights