RAAL La Louvière vs KRC Genk II – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from RAAL La Louvière's attack rating (1.31) and KRC Genk II's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 2.60 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, KRC Genk II's attack versus RAAL La Louvière's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (8.6%), 1-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
RAAL La Louvière Win
70%
1.43
16%
6.09
14%
7.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.6%
Home win
3 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.60
RAAL La Louvière xG
Total xG
3.68
1.08
KRC Genk II xG
1.43
70%
Home win
6.09
16%
Draw
7.39
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
7%
13.45
Win to Nil
24%
4.19
1%
99.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.6 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RAAL La Louvière vs KRC Genk II?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are RAAL La Louvière and KRC Genk II expected to score?
The model projects 2.60 expected goals for RAAL La Louvière and 1.08 for KRC Genk II, a combined total of 3.68.
How confident is the prediction model for RAAL La Louvière vs KRC Genk II?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.