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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Patro Eisden defy the odds to beat SK Beveren 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Patro Eisden beat SK Beveren 3-2 at Patrostadion, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Patro Eisden 1.22 xG and SK Beveren 1.35 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Patro Eisden beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Patro Eisden attack 1.12 / defence 0.89 against SK Beveren attack 1.19 / defence 0.80, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Patro Eisden 34% | Draw 26% | SK Beveren 40%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Patro Eisden win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Patro Eisden 52%, SK Beveren 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Patro Eisden's trading profile (59 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

SK Beveren's trading profile (59 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Patro Eisden 1.69 PPG, SK Beveren 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Patro Eisden win broke the near-deadlock. Patro Eisden (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.90 average — above their attacking norm. SK Beveren (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights