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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as SK Beveren defy the odds to beat Patro Eisden 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SK Beveren beat Patro Eisden 1-2 at Patrostadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Patro Eisden 1.80 xG and SK Beveren 1.12 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. SK Beveren outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Patro Eisden attack 1.27 / defence 0.88 against SK Beveren attack 0.94 / defence 1.02, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Patro Eisden 53% | Draw 23% | SK Beveren 24%, with Patro Eisden to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a SK Beveren win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Patro Eisden 55%, SK Beveren 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Patro Eisden's trading profile (53 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

SK Beveren's trading profile (53 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Patro Eisden 1.74 PPG, SK Beveren 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SK Beveren win broke the near-deadlock. Patro Eisden (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. SK Beveren (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights