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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Patro Eisden and Seraing United share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Patrostadion, Regular Season - 10, as Patro Eisden and Seraing United drew 2-2 in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Patro Eisden 1.57 xG and Seraing United 0.86 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Seraing United outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Patro Eisden attack 1.08 / defence 1.00 against Seraing United attack 0.63 / defence 1.18, drawn from 37/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Patro Eisden 53% | Draw 27% | Seraing United 20%, with Patro Eisden to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Patro Eisden 53%, Seraing United 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Patro Eisden's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Seraing United's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Patro Eisden arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 0.71. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Seraing United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights