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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Seraing United defy the odds to beat Patro Eisden 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Seraing United beat Patro Eisden 2-3 at Patrostadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Patro Eisden 1.89 xG and Seraing United 0.99 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Seraing United outscored their 0.99 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Patro Eisden attack 1.41 / defence 0.85 against Seraing United attack 0.84 / defence 0.95, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Patro Eisden 59% | Draw 22% | Seraing United 19%, with Patro Eisden to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Seraing United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Patro Eisden 56%, Seraing United 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Patro Eisden's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Seraing United's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Patro Eisden arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 0.93. Form was overturned, with Seraing United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Patro Eisden (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Seraing United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights