🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Patro Eisden defy the odds to beat RWDM 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Patro Eisden beat RWDM 1-0 at Patrostadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Patro Eisden 1.44 xG and RWDM 1.53 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. RWDM landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Patro Eisden attack 0.96 / defence 0.93 against RWDM attack 1.18 / defence 1.17, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Patro Eisden 34% | Draw 29% | RWDM 38%, with RWDM to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Patro Eisden win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Patro Eisden 54%, RWDM 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Patro Eisden's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

RWDM's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Patro Eisden 1.72 PPG, RWDM 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Patro Eisden win broke the near-deadlock. Patro Eisden (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. RWDM (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights