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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Patro Eisden and RAAL La Louvière share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Patrostadion, Regular Season - 23, as Patro Eisden and RAAL La Louvière drew 1-1 in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Patro Eisden 1.68 xG and RAAL La Louvière 1.47 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Patro Eisden attack 1.33 / defence 0.92 against RAAL La Louvière attack 1.18 / defence 0.93, drawn from 51/22 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Patro Eisden 43% | Draw 24% | RAAL La Louvière 33%, with Patro Eisden to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Patro Eisden 64%, RAAL La Louvière 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Patro Eisden's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

RAAL La Louvière's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Patro Eisden 1.82 PPG, RAAL La Louvière 2.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Patro Eisden (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.55 scoring average — below par going forward. RAAL La Louvière (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights