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Prediction vindicated as Patro Eisden edge out Olympic Charleroi 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Patro Eisden beat Olympic Charleroi 1-0 at Patrostadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Patro Eisden 1.56 xG and Olympic Charleroi 1.06 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Olympic Charleroi landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Patro Eisden attack 0.87 / defence 0.76 against Olympic Charleroi attack 1.02 / defence 1.31, drawn from 49/20 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Patro Eisden 49% | Draw 25% | Olympic Charleroi 26%, with Patro Eisden to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Patro Eisden 40%, Olympic Charleroi 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Patro Eisden's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Olympic Charleroi's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Patro Eisden arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.60. Form held, and they took the win. Patro Eisden (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Olympic Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights