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Lommel United cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Patro Eisden.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lommel United beat Patro Eisden 0-2 at Patrostadion, Regular Season - 5, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Patro Eisden 1.53 xG and Lommel United 1.13 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Patro Eisden fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Lommel United outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Patro Eisden attack 1.17 / defence 0.93 against Lommel United attack 1.02 / defence 1.05, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Patro Eisden 46% | Draw 25% | Lommel United 28%, with Patro Eisden to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Lommel United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Patro Eisden 54%, Lommel United 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Patro Eisden's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Lommel United's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Patro Eisden arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.15. Form was overturned, with Lommel United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Patro Eisden (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward. Lommel United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights