Patro Eisden vs Lommel United – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Patro Eisden run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Lommel United.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Patro Eisden beat Lommel United 4-0 at Patrostadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Patro Eisden 2.03 xG and Lommel United 1.71 xG, a combined 3.75. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Patro Eisden beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lommel United landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Patro Eisden attack 1.22 / defence 0.95 against Lommel United attack 1.25 / defence 1.08, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Patro Eisden 46% | Draw 21% | Lommel United 33%, with Patro Eisden to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Patro Eisden 56%, Lommel United 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Patro Eisden's trading profile (45 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

Lommel United's trading profile (45 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Patro Eisden 1.67 PPG, Lommel United 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Patro Eisden win broke the near-deadlock. Patro Eisden (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.96 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. Lommel United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights