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Shock result as Patro Eisden defy the odds to beat Lokeren-Temse 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Patro Eisden beat Lokeren-Temse 2-1 at Patrostadion, Regular Season - 1, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Patro Eisden 1.30 xG and Lokeren-Temse 1.46 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Patro Eisden attack 1.08 / defence 0.92 against Lokeren-Temse attack 1.02 / defence 0.94, drawn from 29/29 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Patro Eisden 34% | Draw 25% | Lokeren-Temse 41%, with Lokeren-Temse to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Patro Eisden win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Patro Eisden 58%, Lokeren-Temse 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Patro Eisden's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Lokeren-Temse's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Patro Eisden 1.76 PPG, Lokeren-Temse 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Patro Eisden win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights