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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Patro Eisden and Lokeren-Temse share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Patro Eisden and Lokeren-Temse finished level at 1-1 at Patrostadion, Promotion Play-offs - Final, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Patro Eisden 1.37 xG and Lokeren-Temse 1.22 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Patro Eisden attack 1.11 / defence 0.90 against Lokeren-Temse attack 1.06 / defence 0.90, drawn from 59/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Patro Eisden 40% | Draw 26% | Lokeren-Temse 33%, with Patro Eisden to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Patro Eisden 56%, Lokeren-Temse 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Patro Eisden's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Lokeren-Temse's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Patro Eisden arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.41. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Patro Eisden (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.13 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights