🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Patro Eisden and Liège share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Patrostadion, Regular Season - 29, as Patro Eisden and Liège drew 1-1 in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Patro Eisden 1.45 xG and Liège 1.19 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Patro Eisden attack 1.02 / defence 1.10 against Liège attack 0.80 / defence 1.06, drawn from 56/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Patro Eisden 43% | Draw 26% | Liège 31%, with Patro Eisden to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Patro Eisden 49%, Liège 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Patro Eisden's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Liège's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Patro Eisden 1.65 PPG, Liège 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights