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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Patro Eisden and KRC Genk II share the spoils in a 4-4 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Patrostadion, Regular Season - 24, as Patro Eisden and KRC Genk II drew 4-4 in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Patro Eisden 1.42 xG and KRC Genk II 0.81 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 4-4 for 8 actual goals. Patro Eisden beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. KRC Genk II outscored their 0.81 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Patro Eisden attack 0.84 / defence 0.72 against KRC Genk II attack 0.86 / defence 1.26, drawn from 51/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Patro Eisden 51% | Draw 27% | KRC Genk II 22%, with Patro Eisden to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Patro Eisden 46%, KRC Genk II 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Patro Eisden's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

KRC Genk II's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Patro Eisden arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 0.66. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Patro Eisden (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights