🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Patro Eisden edge out KRC Genk II 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Patro Eisden beat KRC Genk II 1-0 at Patrostadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Patro Eisden 2.96 xG and KRC Genk II 1.15 xG, a combined 4.11. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Patro Eisden fell 2.0 short of their projected output. KRC Genk II landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Patro Eisden attack 1.50 / defence 1.00 against KRC Genk II attack 0.84 / defence 1.43, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Patro Eisden 74% | Draw 15% | KRC Genk II 12%, with Patro Eisden to win its most likely call at 74%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 92% and missed. Over 3.5 was 59% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Patro Eisden 58%, KRC Genk II 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Patro Eisden's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

KRC Genk II's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Patro Eisden arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Patro Eisden (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights