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Prediction vindicated as Patro Eisden edge out K. Lierse S.K. 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Patro Eisden beat K. Lierse S.K. 2-1 at Patrostadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Patro Eisden 1.16 xG and K. Lierse S.K. 0.80 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Patro Eisden beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Patro Eisden attack 1.05 / defence 0.97 against K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.59 / defence 0.99, drawn from 36/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Patro Eisden 43% | Draw 32% | K. Lierse S.K. 24%, with Patro Eisden to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Patro Eisden 51%, K. Lierse S.K. 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Patro Eisden's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Patro Eisden arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.30. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights