Patro Eisden vs Francs Borains – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Patro Eisden at 56% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Patro Eisden vs Francs Borains encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Challenger Pro League clash, Regular Season - 25 as Patro Eisden welcome Francs Borains to Patrostadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 March 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Patro Eisden — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Patro Eisden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Patro Eisden's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Patrostadion this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Francs Borains stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Francs Borains, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Francs Borains's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Challenger Pro League this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Patro Eisden) versus 1.80 (Francs Borains). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Patro Eisden have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 6 past contests while Francs Borains have managed just 1 wins.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Apr 2026, ended 4–0 with Patro Eisden winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Patro Eisden and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Patro Eisden in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Francs Borains in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Patro Eisden 58% versus Francs Borains 32%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Patro Eisden 54% | Francs Borains 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Patro Eisden 1.67 xG and Francs Borains 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Patro Eisden attack 0.970 / defence 0.905 | Francs Borains attack 0.731 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.682 / away 1.331. Data: 42 Patro Eisden games / 41 Francs Borains games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Patro Eisden 56% | Draw 24% | Francs Borains 20%. Fair-value odds: Patro Eisden 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Francs Borains 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Patro Eisden (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Patro Eisden at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Patro Eisden 70% | Francs Borains 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Patro Eisden vs Francs Borains | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Patrostadion • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Mar 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Patro Eisden 56% | Draw 24% | Francs Borains 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 47% | xG Patro Eisden 1.67 / Francs Borains 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Patro Eisden attack 0.970 / def 0.905 | Francs Borains attack 0.731 / def 1.022 | league avg home 1.682 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Patro Eisden (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Patro Eisden xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Francs Borains xG
47%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Patro Eisden vs Francs Borains kick off?
Patro Eisden vs Francs Borains is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Saturday 20 March 2027 at Patrostadion.
Where is Patro Eisden vs Francs Borains being played?
The match is being played at Patrostadion.
What competition is Patro Eisden vs Francs Borains part of?
Patro Eisden vs Francs Borains is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Patro Eisden vs Francs Borains?
Our statistical model gives Patro Eisden a 56% chance of winning, Francs Borains a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Patro Eisden the favourite.
Will both teams score in Patro Eisden vs Francs Borains?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Patro Eisden and Francs Borains will score (BTTS).
Will Patro Eisden vs Francs Borains have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Patro Eisden and Francs Borains?
Record (6 meetings): Patro Eisden 4W | Draws 1 | Francs Borains 1W.
What form are Patro Eisden and Francs Borains in?
Patro Eisden (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Francs Borains (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Patro Eisden's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Francs Borains's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. The same calculation in reverse, Francs Borains's attack versus Patro Eisden's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 2-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Patro Eisden Win
56%
1.79
24%
4.12
20%
5.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Patro Eisden xG
Total xG
2.55
0.88
Francs Borains xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
5.06
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
41%
2.41
19%
5.30
Win to Nil
23%
4.31
4%
26.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 11.5 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.6 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Patro Eisden vs Francs Borains?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Patro Eisden and Francs Borains expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Patro Eisden and 0.88 for Francs Borains, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Patro Eisden vs Francs Borains?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Patro Eisden come into this having played 41 games, going 17W 10D 14L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-W. The sample for Patro Eisden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Francs Borains sit at 1.29 PPG from 41 outings (15W 8D 18L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Francs Borains is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Patro Eisden on 1.49 PPG, Francs Borains on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Patro Eisden's home form reads 9W 5D 6L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Francs Borains have taken 0.90 points per game from 20 outings (5W 3D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Patro Eisden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Patro Eisden are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Francs Borains are on 1.07 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Patro Eisden
Blended
Francs Borains
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Patro Eisden and Francs Borains in coming into this match?
Patro Eisden have gone 17W 10D 14L in their last 41 games (1.49 PPG), while Francs Borains have gone 15W 8D 18L in their last 41 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Patro Eisden at home or Francs Borains away?
Patro Eisden's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Patro Eisden at home: 1.60 PPG; Francs Borains away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Patro Eisden or Francs Borains been keeping clean sheets recently?
Patro Eisden have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Francs Borains in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Apr 2026, when Patro Eisden won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Patro Eisden's record when hosting Francs Borains specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Patro Eisden
1
Draws
1
Francs Borains
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Patro Eisden and Francs Borains?
From 6 meetings on record, Patro Eisden have won 4, Francs Borains have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Patro Eisden and Francs Borains last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when Patro Eisden 4-0 Francs Borains.
Who has won more matches between Patro Eisden and Francs Borains?
Patro Eisden have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Patro Eisden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Francs Borains are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Patro Eisden 55%, Francs Borains 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Patro Eisden) and 60% (Francs Borains). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Francs Borains in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Patro Eisden home games / Francs Borains away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Patro Eisden play Francs Borains?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Patro Eisden's recent matches and 45% of Francs Borains's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Patro Eisden vs Francs Borains usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Patro Eisden's matches and 60% of Francs Borains's.
Do Patro Eisden and Francs Borains tend to score early?
Patro Eisden have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Francs Borains in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.