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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Seraing United cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Olympic Charleroi.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Seraing United beat Olympic Charleroi 2-4 at Stade de la Neuville, Regular Season - 29, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympic Charleroi 0.53 xG and Seraing United 1.33 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Olympic Charleroi beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Seraing United outscored their 1.33 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympic Charleroi attack 0.47 / defence 1.43 against Seraing United attack 0.69 / defence 0.84, drawn from 26/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Olympic Charleroi 15% | Draw 29% | Seraing United 57%, with Seraing United to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympic Charleroi 54%, Seraing United 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Olympic Charleroi's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Seraing United's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Olympic Charleroi 0.62 PPG, Seraing United 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Seraing United win broke the near-deadlock. Olympic Charleroi (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.31 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Seraing United (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.62 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights