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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Lommel United edge out Olympic Charleroi 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lommel United beat Olympic Charleroi 1-2 at Stade de la Neuville, Regular Season - 18, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympic Charleroi 0.92 xG and Lommel United 2.33 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympic Charleroi attack 0.54 / defence 1.25 against Lommel United attack 1.38 / defence 1.28, drawn from 16/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Olympic Charleroi 13% | Draw 18% | Lommel United 69%, with Lommel United to win its most likely call at 69%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympic Charleroi 50%, Lommel United 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Olympic Charleroi's trading profile (16 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Lommel United's trading profile (16 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Lommel United arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.69. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights