🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Lokeren-Temse edge out Olympic Charleroi 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lokeren-Temse beat Olympic Charleroi 0-1 at Stade de la Neuville, Regular Season - 9, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympic Charleroi 0.73 xG and Lokeren-Temse 1.70 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympic Charleroi attack 0.60 / defence 1.62 against Lokeren-Temse attack 0.77 / defence 1.11, drawn from 7/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Olympic Charleroi 15% | Draw 25% | Lokeren-Temse 60%, with Lokeren-Temse to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympic Charleroi 71%, Lokeren-Temse 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Olympic Charleroi's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 71% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Lokeren-Temse's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Lokeren-Temse arrived the stronger side — 0.57 PPG against 0.14. Form held, and they took the win. Olympic Charleroi (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 3.33 average — tighter than their form line. Lokeren-Temse (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights