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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Olympic Charleroi and Liège share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade de la Neuville, Regular Season - 12, as Olympic Charleroi and Liège drew 1-1 in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympic Charleroi 0.48 xG and Liège 1.88 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Liège landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympic Charleroi attack 0.47 / defence 1.39 against Liège attack 0.93 / defence 0.77, drawn from 10/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Olympic Charleroi 7% | Draw 23% | Liège 70%, with Liège to win its most likely call at 70%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympic Charleroi 50%, Liège 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Olympic Charleroi's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did.

Liège's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Liège arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 0.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Olympic Charleroi (home/away splits) scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights