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Dominant Kortrijk run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Olympic Charleroi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kortrijk beat Olympic Charleroi 0-3 at Stade de la Neuville, Regular Season - 3, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympic Charleroi 1.17 xG and Kortrijk 2.01 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Olympic Charleroi fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Kortrijk outscored their 2.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympic Charleroi attack 0.83 / defence 1.46 against Kortrijk attack 1.06 / defence 1.08, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Olympic Charleroi 22% | Draw 21% | Kortrijk 57%, with Kortrijk to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympic Charleroi 100%, Kortrijk 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Kortrijk arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Kortrijk scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.