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Dominant KAA Gent II run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Olympic Charleroi.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

KAA Gent II beat Olympic Charleroi 1-4 at Stade de la Neuville, Regular Season - 1, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympic Charleroi 1.42 xG and KAA Gent II 1.26 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. KAA Gent II outscored their 1.26 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympic Charleroi attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against KAA Gent II attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Olympic Charleroi 41% | Draw 26% | KAA Gent II 33%, with Olympic Charleroi to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual KAA Gent II win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights