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Dominant Club Brugge II run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Olympic Charleroi.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Club Brugge II beat Olympic Charleroi 0-3 at Stade de la Neuville, Regular Season - 21, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympic Charleroi 0.95 xG and Club Brugge II 1.37 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Olympic Charleroi fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Club Brugge II outscored their 1.37 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympic Charleroi attack 0.60 / defence 1.21 against Club Brugge II attack 0.84 / defence 1.17, drawn from 19/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Olympic Charleroi 26% | Draw 27% | Club Brugge II 47%, with Club Brugge II to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympic Charleroi 58%, Club Brugge II 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Olympic Charleroi's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Club Brugge II's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Olympic Charleroi 0.63 PPG, Club Brugge II 0.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Club Brugge II win broke the near-deadlock. Olympic Charleroi (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Club Brugge II (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights