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Prediction vindicated as AS Eupen edge out Olympic Charleroi 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AS Eupen beat Olympic Charleroi 0-1 at Stade de la Neuville, Regular Season - 10, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympic Charleroi 0.73 xG and AS Eupen 2.38 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. AS Eupen landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympic Charleroi attack 0.54 / defence 1.51 against AS Eupen attack 1.13 / defence 1.16, drawn from 8/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Olympic Charleroi 9% | Draw 17% | AS Eupen 74%, with AS Eupen to win its most likely call at 74%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympic Charleroi 62%, AS Eupen 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Olympic Charleroi's trading profile (8 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 75% of games, a blank that repeated today.

AS Eupen's trading profile (8 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, AS Eupen arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.12. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Olympic Charleroi (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line. AS Eupen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights