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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lommel United and SK Beveren share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lommel United and SK Beveren finished level at 2-2 at Soevereinstadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lommel United 0.97 xG and SK Beveren 2.02 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Lommel United beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lommel United attack 1.03 / defence 1.05 against SK Beveren attack 1.35 / defence 0.73, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lommel United 15% | Draw 26% | SK Beveren 59%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 59%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lommel United 56%, SK Beveren 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lommel United's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

SK Beveren's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lommel United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm. SK Beveren (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights