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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as SK Beveren edge out Lommel United 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SK Beveren beat Lommel United 1-2 at Soeverein Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lommel United 1.03 xG and SK Beveren 1.36 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lommel United attack 0.74 / defence 1.13 against SK Beveren attack 0.89 / defence 1.04, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lommel United 28% | Draw 28% | SK Beveren 44%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lommel United 59%, SK Beveren 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lommel United's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

SK Beveren's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lommel United 1.27 PPG, SK Beveren 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SK Beveren win broke the near-deadlock. Lommel United (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SK Beveren (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights