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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Seraing United defy the odds to beat Lommel United 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Seraing United beat Lommel United 0-1 at Soevereinstadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lommel United 1.61 xG and Seraing United 0.83 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Lommel United fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lommel United attack 1.28 / defence 0.91 against Seraing United attack 0.65 / defence 0.95, drawn from 54/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lommel United 56% | Draw 25% | Seraing United 19%, with Lommel United to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Seraing United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lommel United 56%, Seraing United 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lommel United's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Seraing United's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Lommel United arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.81. Form was overturned, with Seraing United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lommel United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward. Seraing United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights