🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Lommel United and Seraing United share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Soeverein Stadion, Regular Season - 24, as Lommel United and Seraing United drew 2-2 in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lommel United 1.25 xG and Seraing United 1.58 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lommel United attack 0.73 / defence 1.16 against Seraing United attack 0.99 / defence 1.25, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lommel United 30% | Draw 26% | Seraing United 45%, with Seraing United to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lommel United 60%, Seraing United 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lommel United's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Seraing United's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lommel United 1.25 PPG, Seraing United 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lommel United (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Seraing United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights