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Prediction vindicated as Patro Eisden edge out Lommel United 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Patro Eisden beat Lommel United 0-1 at Soeverein Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lommel United 0.82 xG and Patro Eisden 1.75 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Lommel United fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lommel United attack 0.79 / defence 1.17 against Patro Eisden attack 1.09 / defence 0.77, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lommel United 17% | Draw 23% | Patro Eisden 59%, with Patro Eisden to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lommel United 61%, Patro Eisden 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lommel United's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Patro Eisden's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Patro Eisden arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.29. Form held, and they took the win. Lommel United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights