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Dominant Lommel United run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Olympic Charleroi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lommel United beat Olympic Charleroi 3-0 at Soevereinstadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lommel United 1.45 xG and Olympic Charleroi 1.21 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Lommel United beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Olympic Charleroi landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lommel United attack 0.96 / defence 1.03 against Olympic Charleroi attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Lommel United 43% | Draw 26% | Olympic Charleroi 31%, with Lommel United to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lommel United 100%, Olympic Charleroi 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Lommel United arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Lommel United conceded 0 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line. Olympic Charleroi managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 3 against a 4.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.