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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lommel United cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Lokeren-Temse.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lommel United beat Lokeren-Temse 3-1 at Soevereinstadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lommel United 1.44 xG and Lokeren-Temse 1.17 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Lommel United beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lommel United attack 1.13 / defence 0.94 against Lokeren-Temse attack 1.05 / defence 1.01, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Lommel United 43% | Draw 26% | Lokeren-Temse 31%, with Lommel United to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lommel United 53%, Lokeren-Temse 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lommel United's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Lokeren-Temse's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lommel United 1.09 PPG, Lokeren-Temse 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lommel United win broke the near-deadlock. Lommel United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm. Lokeren-Temse (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights