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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Liège edge out Lommel United 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Liège beat Lommel United 0-1 at Soevereinstadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lommel United 1.25 xG and Liège 1.27 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Lommel United fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lommel United attack 1.22 / defence 1.02 against Liège attack 0.95 / defence 0.89, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lommel United 35% | Draw 28% | Liège 36%, with Liège to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lommel United 53%, Liège 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lommel United's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Liège's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lommel United 1.22 PPG, Liège 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Liège win broke the near-deadlock. Lommel United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward. Liège (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights