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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Liège cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Lommel United.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Liège beat Lommel United 0-2 at Soeverein Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lommel United 1.34 xG and Liège 1.16 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Lommel United fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Liège outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lommel United attack 0.88 / defence 0.97 against Liège attack 0.88 / defence 1.10, drawn from 46/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lommel United 41% | Draw 27% | Liège 32%, with Lommel United to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Liège win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lommel United 60%, Liège 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lommel United's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Liège's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lommel United 1.42 PPG, Liège 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Liège win broke the near-deadlock. Lommel United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Liège (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights