Lommel United 4-1 Liège – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Lommel United at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lommel United vs Liège fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Challenger Pro League clash, Regular Season - 24 as Lommel United welcome Liège to Soeverein Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 March 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Lommel United have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D W W L D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Lommel United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lommel United's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Soeverein Stadion this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Soeverein Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Liège stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Liège, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Liège have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Lommel United at 1.80 PPG versus Liège's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Lommel United have won 0, Liège 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2023, ended 1–2 with Liège winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Lommel United trading profile (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Liège trading profile (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lommel United 48% versus Liège 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lommel United 56% | Liège 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lommel United 1.21 xG and Liège 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lommel United attack 1.073 / defence 0.764 | Liège attack 0.981 / defence 0.927. League average goals — home 1.221 / away 1.439. Lommel United's defence rating of 0.764 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 Lommel United games / 23 Liège games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lommel United 39% | Draw 28% | Liège 32%. Fair-value odds: Lommel United 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Liège 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lommel United as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lommel United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Lommel United 30% | Liège 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lommel United vs Liège | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Soeverein Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Mar 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lommel United 39% | Draw 28% | Liège 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Lommel United 1.21 / Liège 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Lommel United attack 1.073 / def 0.764 | Liège attack 0.981 / def 0.927 | league avg home 1.221 / away 1.439 • Poisson stance: Lommel United (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Lommel United xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Liège xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lommel United vs Liège kick off?
Lommel United vs Liège kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Soeverein Stadion.
What was the final score in Lommel United vs Liège?
Lommel United 4 - 1 Liège.
Where is Lommel United vs Liège being played?
The match is being played at Soeverein Stadion.
What competition is Lommel United vs Liège part of?
Lommel United vs Liège is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Lommel United vs Liège?
Our statistical model gives Lommel United a 39% chance of winning, Liège a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lommel United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lommel United vs Liège?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Lommel United and Liège will score (BTTS).
Will Lommel United vs Liège have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and Liège?
Record (1 meetings): Lommel United 0W | Draws 0 | Liège 1W.
What form are Lommel United and Liège in?
Lommel United (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. Liège (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lommel United's attack rating (1.07) and Liège's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Liège's attack versus Lommel United's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lommel United Win
39%
2.55
28%
3.53
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Lommel United xG
Total xG
2.29
1.08
Liège xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
13%
7.50
10%
10.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 10.9 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.2 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lommel United vs Liège?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Lommel United and Liège expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Lommel United and 1.08 for Liège, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Lommel United vs Liège?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lommel United's recent record stands at 11W 6D 6L from 23 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Lommel United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Liège, meanwhile, have gone 11W 3D 9L across 23 games — 1.57 PPG, with L-D-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Liège is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lommel United on 1.70 PPG, Liège on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Lommel United have managed 6W 2D 3L from 11 games — 1.82 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Liège's away record stands at 5W 2D 4L across 11 trips, a 1.55 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Lommel United are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Liège are on 1.35 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Defensively: Lommel United have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lommel United
Blended
Liège
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lommel United and Liège in coming into this match?
Lommel United have gone 11W 6D 6L in their last 23 games (1.70 PPG), while Liège have gone 11W 3D 9L in their last 23 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lommel United at home or Liège away?
Lommel United's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lommel United at home: 1.82 PPG; Liège away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Lommel United or Liège been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lommel United have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Liège in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lommel United and Liège runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Challenger Pro League, Jupiler Pro League all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Lommel United have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Mar 2024, when Lommel United won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lommel United's record when hosting Liège specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Lommel United
1
Draws
4
Liège
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and Liège?
From 8 meetings on record, Lommel United have won 3, Liège have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lommel United and Liège last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when Liège 1-2 Lommel United.
Who has won more matches between Lommel United and Liège?
Liège have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Liège are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lommel United 27%, Liège 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Lommel United) and 54% (Liège).
On the defensive side: Lommel United keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Liège in 36%; Liège in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lommel United home games / Liège away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lommel United play Liège?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Lommel United's recent matches and 46% of Liège's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lommel United vs Liège usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Lommel United's recent games and 54% of Liège's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lommel United and Liège tend to score early?
Lommel United have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Liège in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lommel United run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Liège.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lommel United beat Liège 4-1 at Soeverein Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lommel United 1.21 xG and Liège 1.08 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Lommel United beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lommel United attack 1.07 / defence 0.76 against Liège attack 0.98 / defence 0.93, drawn from 45/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lommel United 39% | Draw 28% | Liège 32%, with Lommel United to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lommel United 56%, Liège 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lommel United's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Liège's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lommel United 1.70 PPG, Liège 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lommel United win broke the near-deadlock. Lommel United (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm. Liège (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.