🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as KRC Genk II defy the odds to beat Lommel United 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

KRC Genk II beat Lommel United 1-2 at Soevereinstadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lommel United 1.61 xG and KRC Genk II 1.08 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. KRC Genk II outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lommel United attack 1.25 / defence 0.90 against KRC Genk II attack 0.90 / defence 1.06, drawn from 34/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lommel United 50% | Draw 25% | KRC Genk II 25%, with Lommel United to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a KRC Genk II win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lommel United 52%, KRC Genk II 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lommel United's trading profile (33 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

KRC Genk II's trading profile (33 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Lommel United arrived the stronger side — 1.24 PPG against 0.55. Form was overturned, with KRC Genk II winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights