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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Francs Borains edge out Lommel United 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Francs Borains beat Lommel United 1-2 at Soeverein Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lommel United 1.13 xG and Francs Borains 1.33 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lommel United attack 0.78 / defence 1.05 against Francs Borains attack 0.94 / defence 1.05, drawn from 47/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lommel United 32% | Draw 27% | Francs Borains 41%, with Francs Borains to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lommel United 58%, Francs Borains 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lommel United's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Francs Borains's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lommel United 1.42 PPG, Francs Borains 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Francs Borains win broke the near-deadlock. Lommel United (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Francs Borains (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights