Lommel United 1-2 Francs Borains – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Francs Borains at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lommel United vs Francs Borains fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Francs Borains make the trip to Soeverein Stadion to face Lommel United in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Wednesday 29 January 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Lommel United (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lommel United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lommel United's form when playing at home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 games at Soeverein Stadion this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Francs Borains's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Francs Borains, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Francs Borains have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Lommel United, 1.30 for Francs Borains — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Across 3 previous meetings, Lommel United are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 0 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2024, ended 3–1 with Lommel United winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Lommel United and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Lommel United — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Francs Borains — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lommel United 62% versus Francs Borains 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lommel United 58% | Francs Borains 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lommel United 1.13 xG and Francs Borains 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lommel United attack 0.775 / defence 1.053 | Francs Borains attack 0.938 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.347. Lommel United's attack strength of 0.775 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 47 Lommel United games / 48 Francs Borains games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lommel United 32% | Draw 27% | Francs Borains 41%. Fair-value odds: Lommel United 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Francs Borains 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Francs Borains as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Francs Borains if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data: Lommel United 70% | Francs Borains 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lommel United vs Francs Borains | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Soeverein Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 29 Jan 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lommel United 32% | Draw 27% | Francs Borains 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Lommel United 1.13 / Francs Borains 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Lommel United attack 0.775 / def 1.053 | Francs Borains attack 0.938 / def 1.053 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.347 • Poisson stance: Francs Borains (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Lommel United xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Francs Borains xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lommel United vs Francs Borains kick off?
Lommel United vs Francs Borains kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 29 January 2025 at Soeverein Stadion.
What was the final score in Lommel United vs Francs Borains?
Lommel United 1 - 2 Francs Borains.
Where is Lommel United vs Francs Borains being played?
The match is being played at Soeverein Stadion.
What competition is Lommel United vs Francs Borains part of?
Lommel United vs Francs Borains is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Lommel United vs Francs Borains?
Our statistical model gives Lommel United a 32% chance of winning, Francs Borains a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Francs Borains the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lommel United vs Francs Borains?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Lommel United and Francs Borains will score (BTTS).
Will Lommel United vs Francs Borains have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and Francs Borains?
Record (3 meetings): Lommel United 3W | Draws 0 | Francs Borains 0W.
What form are Lommel United and Francs Borains in?
Lommel United (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Francs Borains (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Lommel United's attack at 0.78x the league average against Francs Borains's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Francs Borains's attack (0.94x) against Lommel United's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 47/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Francs Borains Win
32%
3.17
27%
3.69
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Lommel United xG
Total xG
2.46
1.33
Francs Borains xG
3.17
32%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
8%
11.97
13%
7.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 11.4 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.2 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lommel United vs Francs Borains?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Lommel United and Francs Borains expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Lommel United and 1.33 for Francs Borains, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Lommel United vs Francs Borains?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lommel United's recent record stands at 18W 14D 16L from 48 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Lommel United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Francs Borains, meanwhile, have gone 14W 9D 25L across 48 games — 1.06 PPG, with W-W-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Francs Borains is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for Lommel United against 1.06 for Francs Borains. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Lommel United have managed 9W 8D 7L from 24 games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Francs Borains's away record stands at 8W 4D 12L across 24 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Lommel United are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Francs Borains are on 1.21 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lommel United have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lommel United
Blended
Francs Borains
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lommel United and Francs Borains in coming into this match?
Lommel United have gone 18W 14D 16L in their last 48 games (1.42 PPG), while Francs Borains have gone 14W 9D 25L in their last 48 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lommel United at home or Francs Borains away?
Lommel United's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lommel United at home: 1.46 PPG; Francs Borains away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lommel United won 3-0 on 24 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lommel United have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Francs Borains — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Lommel United
1
Draws
1
Francs Borains
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and Francs Borains?
From 6 meetings on record, Lommel United have won 4, Francs Borains have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lommel United and Francs Borains last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Lommel United 3-1 Francs Borains.
Who has won more matches between Lommel United and Francs Borains?
Lommel United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Francs Borains are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lommel United 54%, Francs Borains 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Lommel United) and 67% (Francs Borains).
On the defensive side: Francs Borains in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lommel United home games / Francs Borains away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lommel United play Francs Borains?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Lommel United's recent matches and 54% of Francs Borains's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lommel United vs Francs Borains usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Lommel United's recent games and 67% of Francs Borains's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lommel United and Francs Borains tend to score early?
Lommel United have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Francs Borains in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Francs Borains edge out Lommel United 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Francs Borains beat Lommel United 1-2 at Soeverein Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lommel United 1.13 xG and Francs Borains 1.33 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lommel United attack 0.78 / defence 1.05 against Francs Borains attack 0.94 / defence 1.05, drawn from 47/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lommel United 32% | Draw 27% | Francs Borains 41%, with Francs Borains to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lommel United 58%, Francs Borains 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lommel United's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Francs Borains's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lommel United 1.42 PPG, Francs Borains 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Francs Borains win broke the near-deadlock. Lommel United (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Francs Borains (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.